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Mesirow Currency Management | 1Q2024 Commentary
Currency for return | Latest MCM viewpoints | Contact us | Explore currency solutions, US dollar outperforms all G10 currencies, US dollar outperformed the rest of the G10 in the first quarter of 2024 as other major central banks tilted more dovish than the Fed While soft data prints in ISM manufacturing and services and mixed employment data – an upside nonfarm payrolls number was offset by a large revision lower over the prior two months – offered little support inflation exceeded expectations with the most recent core…, EUR |, While finding general strength in Q1 over most developed currencies Euro trailed both a strong US dollar and a resilient Sterling While core CPI numbers have been moving lower printings have surprised higher with the last number coming in at 31% YoY vs 29% expected The ECB kept rates on hold at 40% in the March meeting as President Lagarde pushed back against an April cut although accompanied by…, GBP |, Sterling was a strong performer among the G10 in Q2 trailing only the strong US dollar over the quarter BoE Chief Economist Pill expressed his expectation of inflation falling below the target level of 2% temporarily in the coming months The latest labor data was dovish with average weekly earnings surprising lower and unemployment printing above consensus at 39% vs 38% expected However inflation…, JPY |, Yen underperformed the rest of the G10 in Q1 despite a rate hike in March as the BoJ overhauled their monetary policy framework Spring wage Shunto negotiations saw greater wage growth demands Labor cash earnings surprised to the upside at 2% YoY Toyota and other firms agreed to the largest wage hikes in over 25 years Yen weakness continued with a rapid rise in rates seen as unlikely prompting an…, AUD |, Australian dollar was a middling performer within the G10 over Q1 although performing well in March to end the quarter The RBA held its cash rate steady at 435% but seemed concerned by a very high unit labor cost However Governor Bullock described household consumption as particularly weak Employment change for February surprised higher at 1165K vs 40K expected as unemployment dropped to 37% from…, CAD |, Canadian dollar landed in the upper half of the G10 in Q1 following a particularly strong March The BoC left rates unchanged at 5% as the Governor indicated that it was too early to consider lowering interest rates Unemployment printed higher recently at 58% although the net change in employment was stronger than expected registering at 407K vs 20K consensus The BoC was encouraged by inflation…, CHF |, Swiss franc performed poorly in Q1 besting only the weaker Yen in G10 The SNB surprised the market by cutting rates by 25bps the first amongst its peers to lower rates Inflation continued to tick down with February registering at 12% vs 13% the previous month well below the 2% target level The SNB lowered their forecast for consumer prices to 15% in 2024 down from 19% in its prior forecast, EM |, Emerging market currencies were generally weaker in Q1 as the MSCI EM Currency Index fell close to -1% in a turbulent month with Mexican and Columbian peso as the rare outperformers against US dollar this quarter In China political tension with the US continued as US lawmakers made attempts to discourage investments into China with further pressure from the Fed’s higher for longer stance TABLE 1…, FX Rate, Change 3M %, Change YTD %, EUR-USD 108 -223% -059% GBP-USD 126325 -091% 217% USD-JPY 151345 -685% -1206% AUD-USD 06524 -439% -259% USD-CAD 135325 -256% 001% USD-CHF 09007 -656% 143% Source WM/Reuters Currency for return Currency Alpha Mesirow Currency Management’s (MCM Extended Markets Currency Alpha Asian Markets Currency Alpha Emerging Markets Currency Alpha and Systematic Macro strategy all suffered losses this…, , Explore currency solutions, Passive and Dynamic Risk Management, Customized solutions to manage unrewarded currency risk in international portfolios Learn more, Currency for Return, Strategies that aim to profit from short and medium-term moves in the currency market Learn more, Fiduciary FX, Trading solution for asset managers and owners with focus on reducing transaction costs improving transparency and enhancing efficiency Learn more 1 The GVI is an internal proprietary model utilizing one month at-the-money (ATM volatility for G10 currencies including crosses plus BIS liquidity report weightings
Mesirow Currency Management | 1Q2025 Commentary
US dollar depreciates in 1Q2025, US dollar weakness continued into the end of the quarter marking three consecutive months of dollar depreciation to start the year with tariff uncertainty abound Recession fears weighed heavily on USD in early March as the Atlanta Feds GDPnow model significantly revised its Q1 GDP forecast down to -15% annualized from over 2% previously Tariffs were imposed on Canada and Mexico although quickly…, EUR, | Euro performed solidly over the quarter landing in the upper half of the G10 in Q1 The common currency was buoyed by the proposed major defense and infrastructure package in March heavily influenced by Germany The ECB cut rates by 50bps in the quarter to 25% marking six consecutive cuts while signaling that the end of the easing cycle was near Data prints disappointed as German factory orders…, GBP, | Sterling performed relatively well in Q1 landing just into the upper half of the G10 buoyed by a weaker US dollar and positive data releases to end the quarter Additionally Germanys proposed defense and infrastructure package lifted European bond yields higher broadly including in the UK While GDP and industrial production data surprised lower the labor market surprised higher with employment…, JPY, | Yen was a strong performer over the quarter landing in the upper third of the G10 in Q1 The BoJ delivered a rate hike in January of 25bps bringing rates up to 05% the highest since 2008 While the central bank left the door open for more hikes rates were subsequently left unchanged with Governor Ueda stating that wages and prices are on track while also indicating the difficulty in ascertaining…, CAD, | Canadian dollar was the worst performer in the G10 over the quarter as a direct target of Trump’s tariff policy CAD whipsawed as Trump’s tariff announcements were unpredictable – previously delayed 25% tariffs were imposed USMCA compliant goods were then removed Canada announced retaliatory tariffs steel and aluminum tariffs were announced followed by more retaliatory tariffs from Canada…, AUD, | Australian dollar landed in the lower third of the G10 in Q1 as risk sentiment fell into quarter-end The RBA delivered an expected 25bps cut in rates Although positive developments with key trading partners Europe and China helped support AUD later in the quarter Australian dollar was pressured as the US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum followed by falling data prints in March – employment…, CHF, | Swiss franc landed in the middle of the G10 in Q1 with an SNB rate cut offsetting safe-haven flows Despite a rise in inflation of 03% MoM vs 02% expected the SNB cut rates in March by 25bps to 025% citing global economic uncertainty as the reason for easing SNB president Schlegel stated that “this rate cut has an expansionary impact” and that “the probability of additional policy easing is…, EM, | Emerging market currencies climbed 174% in Q1 as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index as US dollar weakness helped promote higher EM currencies Mexico and China were prime targets of Trump’s tariff policies as China was hit with an additional 10% tariff on its exports to the US While Mexico was threatened with 25% tariffs President Sheinbaum and President Trump came to an…, FX Rate, Change 3M %, Change 1Y%, EUR-USD 10802 432% 002% GBP-USD 129075 306% 218% USD-JPY 14954 510% 121% AUD-USD 062315 065% -448% USD-CAD 143925 -007% -598% USD-CHF 088475 243% -180% Source WM/Reuters, Currency for return, Currency Alpha Mesirow Currency Management’s (MCM Extended Markets Currency Alpha Asian Markets Currency Alpha Emerging Markets Currency Alpha and Systematic Macro strategy all suffered losses this quarter Our Machine Learning model performed the best over the quarter but unfortunately our trend following suite of models and Economic Surprise model negated any gains made Global volatility…, , Explore currency solutions, Passive and Dynamic Risk Management, Customized solutions to manage unrewarded currency risk in international portfolios Learn more, Currency for Return, Strategies that aim to profit from short and medium-term moves in the currency market Learn more, Fiduciary FX, Trading solution for asset managers and owners with focus on reducing transaction costs improving transparency and enhancing efficiency Learn more 1 2 The GVI is an internal proprietary model utilizing one month at-the-money (ATM volatility for G10 currencies including crosses plus BIS liquidity report weightings
Mesirow Currency Management | 2Q2024 Commentary
Currency for return | Latest MCM viewpoints | Contact us | Explore currency solutions, US dollar ends second quarter in strong position, US dollar cycled throughout the quarter recovering in June after a large drop in May buoyed by a hawkish adjustment to the Fed outlook along with political uncertainties in Europe and the US Strong labor prints supported the dollar with the most recent nonfarm payrolls and hourly earnings surprising higher at 272K vs 180K expected and 04% MoM vs 03% expected respectively Although inflation…, EUR |, Euro landed in the lower end of the G10 in the second quarter only outperforming a severely depressed Yen and slightly besting a similarly behaving Canadian dollar Soft Eurozone data and political uncertainties in France weighed on the common currency The ECB began its cutting cycle in June lowering rates by 25bps to 425% as expected With price pressures remaining elevated the central bank…, GBP |, Sterling was a middling performer among the G10 in the second quarter ending slightly ahead of US dollar as mixed economic data kept GBP cycling in Q2 While the most recent labour and wage data surprised higher inflation tracked lower for May reaching the BoE’s inflation target of 20% YoY The BoE voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold at 525% While the pause in policy was expected the “finely…, JPY |, Yen lagged the rest of the G10 in Q2 as intervention rhetoric ramped up with USDJPY reaching 16127 on the last day of the quarter a level not seen since 1986 Real-term wage growth remained negative as the slow increase in wages had not yet surpassed the level of inflation The BoJ left rates unchanged as expected while voting to reduce bond purchases but deferred the announcement of a detailed…, AUD |, Australian dollar was the high performer of the G10 for the quarter Recent employment numbers surprised towards the upside rising 397K vs 30K consensus The RBA left rates unchanged at 435% with the market pricing in potential hikes by year-end May CPI printed 40% YoY beating the expected 38% number, CAD |, Canadian dollar weakened over the quarter besting only the severely depressed Yen The BoC cut rates by 25bps to 475% as expected stating that it was reasonable to expect further cuts if inflation continued toward the 2% target However inflation printed higher at 29% YoY for May vs 26% expected Governor Macklem noted that the labor market was closer to being in balance and that wages tended to lag…, CHF |, Swiss franc landed in the middle of the G10 in Q2 Following a low inflation number for March at 1% YoY the next two prints increased to 14% The SNB cut rates by 25bps as expected following a similar move in March lowering the rate to 125% The central bank noted a decrease in underlying inflationary pressure and the strength of CHF as reasons for the rate cut Swiss franc was supported towards…, EM |, MSCI EM Currency Index ended Q2 relatively flat down -009% though cycling throughout the quarter South African rand performed well against US dollar as global elections encouraged investors as the African National Congress Party and Democratic Alliance along with a number of smaller parties formed a coalition “Government of National Unity” Mexican peso notably lagged US dollar as the market…, FX Rate, Change 3M %, Change 1Y%, EUR-USD 107175 -076% -176% GBP-USD 12641 007% -057% USD-JPY 16086 -592% -1015% AUD-USD 066785 237% 033% USD-CAD 136835 -110% -330% USD-CHF 08986 023% -044% Source WM/Reuters Currency for return Currency Alpha Mesirow Currency Management’s (MCM Asian Markets Currency Alpha and Systematic Macro strategy made gains this quarter while our Extended Markets Currency Alpha and Emerging Markets…, , Explore currency solutions, Passive and Dynamic Risk Management, Customized solutions to manage unrewarded currency risk in international portfolios Learn more, Currency for Return, Strategies that aim to profit from short and medium-term moves in the currency market Learn more, Fiduciary FX, Trading solution for asset managers and owners with focus on reducing transaction costs improving transparency and enhancing efficiency Learn more
Mesirow Currency Management | 3Q2024 Commentary
Currency for return | Latest MCM viewpoints | Contact us | Explore currency solutions, US dollar worst G10 performer 3Q2024, US dollar was the worst performer in the G10 over the third quarter pressured by the Fed’s 50bp At the Jackson Hole CB symposium Fed Chair Powell signaled that they would be lowering rates Employment generally disappointed with the latest nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected at 142K vs 165K consensus while unemployment came in a bit lower than before at 42% vs 43% previously Although the most…, EUR |, Euro was a middling performer in the G10 in Q3 as data was weak and the ECB cut rates Data over the quarter indicated a softening of inflation falling from 26%YoY in July to 22% in August Germany and France both printed weak economic data in early September with industrial production contracting more than expected in both countries The ECB cut rates at their September meeting in a widely…, GBP |, Sterling was a strong performer in Q3 A strong July was followed by an equally strong reversal in early August ultimately recovering higher over the second half of the quarter as a landslide Labor general election win fueled hopes for a sustained recovery in the domestic economy The BoE delivered a 25bps cut to 5% towards the end of July The latest UK labour data was mixed with employment…, JPY |, Yen was the highest performer in the G10 by a wide margin in Q3 The BoJ’s hawkish stance on interest rates and subsequent hike by 15bps to 025% underpinned JPY While BoJ Governor Ueda let the markets know that policymakers would raise rates again if needed the BoJ kept rates unchanged at their most recent meeting The latest Tokyo CPI printed at 22% YoY from 26% the month before retails sales came…, AUD |, Australian dollar landed in the lower half of the G10 in Q3 as the RBA kept its policy rate unchanged at 435% maintaining its hawkish stance with an emphasis on underlying inflation August CPI printed as expected at 27% YoY down from 35% the previous month While unemployment remained at 42% in August employment increased more than consensus and the participation rate matched consensus at 671%…, CAD |, Canadian dollar was broadly weaker over the quarter ending Q3 by underperforming the rest of the G10 in September The BoC cut rates twice in the quarter for a total of 50bps dropping their policy rate to 425% Following the 2nd cut Governor Macklem indicated the bank’s willingness to take a bigger step in the future if the data necessitates The latest headline inflation came in under consensus at…, CHF |, The Swiss franc performed well over the quarter trailing only Yen in the G10 However September was a relatively weaker month as the SNB cut rates by 25bps to 1% Inflation numbers generally softened as August CPI registered lower than consensus with YoY at 11% vs 12% expected and MoM at 0% vs 01% expected However recent GDP printed better than expected at 07% QoQ vs 05% consensus The SNB stated…, EM |, EM currencies appreciated as the MSCI EM Currency index gained over 4% in Q3 promoted by a weaker US dollar Chinese yuan strengthened as PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a package of interest-rate cuts liquidity and support for the stock market In contrast Turkish lira performed poorly in the EM space as foreign equity outflows weighed on the currency as second quarter earnings were lower…, FX Rate, Change 3M %, Change 1Y%, EUR-USD 111605 413% 541% GBP-USD 1134135 611% 990% USD-JPY 14304 1246% 432% AUD-USD 069375 388% 749% USD-CAD 135095 129% 008% USD-CHF 084355 653% 845% Source WM/Reuters Currency for return Currency Alpha Mesirow Currency Management’s (MCM Extended Markets Currency Alpha Asian Markets Currency Alpha Emerging Markets Currency Alpha and Systematic Macro strategy all enjoyed notable gains this…, , Explore currency solutions, Passive and Dynamic Risk Management, Customized solutions to manage unrewarded currency risk in international portfolios Learn more, Currency for Return, Strategies that aim to profit from short and medium-term moves in the currency market Learn more, Fiduciary FX, Trading solution for asset managers and owners with focus on reducing transaction costs improving transparency and enhancing efficiency Learn more
Mesirow Currency Management | 4Q2024 Commentary
Currency for return | Latest MCM viewpoints | Contact us | Explore currency solutions, US dollar outperforms other G10 currencies in 4Q2024, The US dollar handily outperformed the rest of the G10 currencies in Q4 driven by positive data the Republican clean sweep and year-end safe-haven buying as the market readied for a Trump presidency Recent employment prints showed a supportive labor market with non-farm payrolls higher than consensus at 227K vs 220K expected Inflation held relatively steady with headline and core CPI for November…, EUR |, Euro was a middling performer within the G10 in Q4 with the ECB ending the year on a dovish note The ECB cut rates by 50bps over the quarter as the inflation outlook became more favorable while economic and political uncertainty remained In their most recent statement the ECB removed language that the central bank would “keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary”…, GBP |, Sterling was a relatively high performer within the G10 in Q4 The BoE cut rates by 25bps in November as expected although the budget release at the end of October was seen as inflationary Although GDP contracted 01% MoM in October preliminary December composite PMI remained expansionary and average weekly earnings rose 52% YoY over three months in October besting 46% expected The BoE left rates…, JPY |, Yen landed in the lower third of the G10 in Q4 pressured early in the quarter as the ruling coalition lost their majority and Governor Ueda expressed that current environment did not require the bank to raise interest rates further” By the end of November national inflation data printed at 23% with Ueda adding that rate hikes were nearing However the BoJ left the policy rate at 025% at the…, CAD |, Canadian dollar outperformed the majority of developed currencies save the strong US dollar in Q4 The BoC cut rates by a total of 100bps over the quarter while CPI numbers fluctuated around 2% YoY Recent unemployment numbers ticked higher than expected to 68% while hourly wages sunk well below expectations at 39% YoY vs 47% consensus At the December meeting Governor Macklem said that the central…, AUD |, Australian dollar broadly weakened in Q4 only outperforming the New Zealand dollar in the G10 Although the RBA kept its policy rate unchanged at 435% the most recent statement had a more dovish tone with the central bank softening its forward guidance while failing to rule out a rate cut in the near term during the press conference Additional pressure was felt on AUD as China’s stimulus hopes…, CHF |, Swiss franc was a middling performer in the G10 in Q4 While CHF received a boost from the escalation of Russian-Ukraine conflict continued dovish rhetoric from the SNB weighed on the currency The SNB cut rates again by 50bps in December to 05% while the market expected 25bps During the press conference SNB President Schlegel noted more room left on rates and that the SNB could not exclude the…, EM |, Emerging market currencies were under pressure in Q4 as the MSCI EM Currency Index fell -36% over the quarter Trump’s victory and the Republican clean sweep acted as a headwind for EM equities and currencies in the face of investor concerns about the impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs particularly on China TABLE 1 USD-BASED AS OF DECEMBER 31 2024 , FX Rate, Change 3M %, Change 1Y%, EUR-USD 10355 -722% -626% GBP-USD 12524 -663% -176% USD-JPY 15716 -898% -1030% AUD-USD 061915 -1075% -926% USD-CAD 14382 -607% -832% USD-CHF 090625 -692% -713% Source WM/Reuters Currency for return Mesirow Currency Management’s (MCM Extended Markets Currency Alpha Asian Markets Currency Alpha Emerging Markets Currency Alpha and Systematic Macro strategy all enjoyed gains this quarter The…, , Explore currency solutions, Passive and Dynamic Risk Management, Customized solutions to manage unrewarded currency risk in international portfolios Learn more, Currency for Return, Strategies that aim to profit from short and medium-term moves in the currency market Learn more, Fiduciary FX, Trading solution for asset managers and owners with focus on reducing transaction costs improving transparency and enhancing efficiency Learn more 1 The GVI is an internal proprietary model utilizing one month at-the-money (ATM volatility for G10 currencies including crosses plus BIS liquidity report weightings
Mesirow Currency Management AUM surpasses $100 billion
Mesirow announced today that its Currency Management group has surpassed $100 billion in assets under management (“AUM” as of December 31 2019 Currency is one of the biggest risks for institutions investing abroad and as more money is put to work overseas this risk continues to grow As a result a significant demand for Mesirow’s currency risk management services has led to a 50% increase in AUM…, About Mesirow , Mesirow is an independent employee-owned financial services firm founded in 1937 Headquartered in Chicago with offices in 21 cities we serve clients through a personal custom approach to reaching financial goals and acting as a force for social good With capabilities spanning Global Investment Management Capital Markets & Investment Banking and Advisory Services we invest in what matters our…
Mesirow Currency Management embraces FX Global Code of Conduct
CHICAGO January 23 2018, – Mesirow Financial recently signed and committed to the FX Global Code of Conduct By embracing these global standards Mesirow is dedicated to follow a common set of guidelines and has taken appropriate steps based on its size complexity of activities and the nature of its engagement in the FX Market to align its activities with the principles of the code The FX Global Code of Conduct is a set…
Mesirow Currency Management expands global trading team
Alex Foreman joins Mesirow Currency Management’s 24-hour global trading team from Russell Investments, Foreman joins amid a 41% surge in trading volume and 38% AUM growth over the past three years 1, CHICAGO July 17 2024, – Mesirow an independent employee-owned financial services firm announced today that, Alex Foreman, has joined Mesirow Currency Management’s trading team from Russell Investments Foreman brings twelve years of strategy and execution expertise and joins a highly skilled trading team that averages over 20 years of experience and serves a global institutional client base on a 24-hour basis “We’re excited to have Alex join the team” said, Joe Hoffman, CFA CEO of Mesirow Currency Management, “Last year our trading volume exceeded $715 billion and our AUM has continued to increase every year for the past ten years Our commitment to our clients is our top priority and we’ve been happy to be able to add new team members to the group as our client offerings have expanded and our long-term partnerships with institutions around the world have grown” Before joining Mesirow Alex spent over a…, About Mesirow Currency Management, With more than $169B in currency assets 1, Mesirow Currency Management, has been delivering innovative customized currency solutions to institutional clients globally since 1990 Being a private employee-owned firm Mesirow is free from many conflicts of interest associated with bank-affiliated organizations or publicly held firms and is fully aligned with the interests of its clients Mesirow Currency Management is a signatory to the FX Global Code of Conduct and is a…, About Mesirow, Mesirow is an independent employee-owned financial services firm founded in 1937 Headquartered in Chicago with locations around the world we serve clients through a personal custom approach to reaching financial goals and acting as a force for social good With capabilities spanning Global Investment Management Capital Markets & Investment Banking and Advisory Services we invest in what…, mesirowcom, follow us on, LinkedIn, and subscribe to, Spark, our quarterly newsletter Mesirow has been named one of the Best Places to Work in Chicago by Crain’s Chicago Business multiple times and is one of Barron’s Top 100 RIA firms Mesirow refers to Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc and its divisions subsidiaries and affiliates The Mesirow name and logo are registered service marks of Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc © 2024 Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc…
Mesirow Currency Management Expands Portfolio Management Team
Firm hires Marcin Bednarczyk from Russell Investments as Senior Vice President Bednarczyk will focus on implementing the team’s investment strategy and portfolio management functions The role will support the recently expanded suite of products and continued increase in AUM, CHICAGO July 30 2021, – Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc (“Mesirow” or the “firm” an independent employee-owned financial services firm today announced Marcin Bednarczyk has joined as a Senior Vice President Senior Portfolio Manager where he will focus on implementing the team’s investment strategy and portfolio management functions The team’s assets under management have grown to more than $124 billion* as…, About Mesirow Currency Management , With global headquarters in Chicago and investment presence around the world Mesirow Currency Management manages over $124 billion* in assets for an institutional global client base and offers custom solutions to suit specific client needs Our offerings include execution services passive management active currency risk management and currency for return For more information please visit…, About Mesirow , Mesirow is an independent employee-owned financial services firm founded in 1937 Headquartered in Chicago with locations around the world we serve clients through a personal custom approach to reaching financial goals and acting as a force for social good With capabilities spanning Global Investment Management Capital Markets & Investment Banking and Advisory Services we invest in what…
Mesirow deepens Leadership Team through three strategic hires
Mesirow (“the “firm” today announced the recent appointments of three executives with proven track records of driving business growth and enhancing the client experience in the financial services industry “To deliver excellence to clients we are committed to attracting and retaining top-notch talent across all levels of our organization” said Dominick Mondi President and CEO of Mesirow “Our firm…, About Mesirow , Mesirow is an independent employee-owned financial services firm founded in 1937 Headquartered in Chicago with offices in 21 cities we serve clients through a personal custom approach to reaching financial goals and acting as a force for social good With capabilities spanning Global Investment Management Capital Markets & Investment Banking and Advisory Services we invest in what matters our…