It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, MORNINGSTAR, 13 Charts on Q4s Big Postelection Rally - and Late Stumble, In 2024 economic growth growing corporate earnings falling interest rates and a soaring Technology and Artificial Intelligence trade boosted markets to all-time highs The gains were not evenly distributed however as during the fourth quarter growth stocks continued to build on their 2024 gains while other sectors of the market — such as value dividend small cap and international stocks — turned…, On Bubble Watch, Recent years in the market have been unique with the S&P 500 returning over 20% in back-to-back years for only the fifth time in history driven largely by the magnificent seven [Apple Microsoft Alphabet (Google’s parent Amazoncom Nvidia Meta (owner of Facebook WhatsApp and Instagram and Tesla] which accounted for more than half of the indexs 2024 return Further these seven companies now…, Podcast Capital Allocators Interview with Marco Maven Scott Bessent, President-elect Trump recently tapped Scott Bessent as his choice for Treasury secretary Bessent has had a long and successful career as an investor having worked for several legendary hedge fund managers including Jim Rogers George Soros and Jim Chanos before launching his own fund In this wide-ranging conversation with host Ted Seides which was recorded before the election Bessent talks about…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, MESIROW, Reflections from Omaha Six core investment principles , Mesirow Wealth Management Research Team members were fortunate to attend the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting in Omaha where legendary investor Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO at age 94 While the meeting serves as an update on Berkshire it’s also a gathering place for like-minded investors to reinforce the core principles Buffett has championed over his 60+ year career…, ETFs are booming Mutual Funds want in on the action, Over the past five years launches of new Exchange Traded Funds (or ETFs have eclipsed the launches of new mutual funds as investor interest and flexibility around the ETF structure have grown This New York Times article explores the evolving “ ETF vs Mutual Fund ” debate between two of the most popular investment vehicles It highlights some key differences ETFs offer intraday trading potentially…, Different kinds of smarts, The article opens with Jeff Bezos’s observation that “there are a lot of kinds of smart” followed by a recap of the dramatic 1998 collapse of Long-Term Capital Management — an investment group that billed itself as the smartest ever assembled — as a cautionary tale that brilliance alone doesn’t guarantee success Instead true intelligence encompasses traits like humility imagination cross-…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, MORNINGSTAR, How the 2024 election could affect your portfolio, An election with a binary outcome — where one of two candidates will be our next president — can lead investors to believe that they need to also plan for their finances in a binary manner based on their predicted outcome The truth is much more nuanced as market performance has varied wildly without a strong correlation to the party that holds the presidency or Congress Further the path of least…, Whats in a cycle, At its September meeting the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percent The consensus view is that this marked a change from the cycle of interest rate increases to a new cycle of interest rate declines This column from Jason Zweig looks at past rate cycles and reminds us History shows that interest rates seldom move down or up in a smooth and predictable path Zweig reminds us that the…, WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert is leading the league to historic highs, Five years ago Cathy Engelbert stepped down as CEO of Deloitte where she oversaw more than $20 billion in revenue Engelbert left the consulting firm and its 100000-plus employees to join the WNBA as its commissioner where she inherited a much smaller staff of just 12 Her first year in the role saw her face the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and internal and external threats to the leagues…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, Morningstar, Winning by Not Losing podcast featuring Brian Selmo, Brian Selmo the Portfolio Manager of the FPA Crescent Fund and the FPA Global Equity ETF recently joined Morningstars Long View podcast In a year that has been defined by significant uncertainty and market volatility Selmo addressed how investors can Win by Not Losing in todays market environment Selmo offers a unique perspective on investing discipline highlighting how investors can balance…, The Intelligent Investor Why Do Smart People Do Stupid Things With Their Money, Richard Thaler and Alex Imas are both authors economists and professors at the University of Chicagos Booth School of Business The pair recently updated Thalers 1992 book The Winners Curse which examined many of the paradoxes of investors behaviors In this conversation with Jason Zweig Thaler and Imas touched on some of the common ways that investors get in their own way including chasing return…, Sharpie Found a Way to Make Pens More Cheaply — By Manufacturing Them in the US, Many US manufacturers have struggled to compete with global producers An executive for Sharpie the ubiquitous marker went against conventional wisdom in 2018 when he challenged his company to figure out a faster better and cheaper way to manufacture in the US Following an overhaul of their manufacturing process that included $2 billion of investment and thousands of hours of training Sharpie is…, The 25 Most Interesting Ideas Ive Found (So Far, In this summary of chart excerpts and links journalist Derek Thompson shares the 25 ideas that have caught his attention this year The data covers the economy AI politics health science and culture While individually interesting in aggregate this information tells an interesting story of America today giving historical context to the current environment while offering a long-term narrative around…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter,   Interest Rates, What rising interest rates mean for your fixed income portfolio, 2022 saw the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at a pace not seen in decades This rapid increase led to a painful year for both equity and bond investors as the rise in rates contributed to a decline in equity valuations while bond investors simultaneously saw losses as their fixed income holdings repriced to the new rate environment The silver lining to the move in rates is long-term…, Big changes in the S&P 500 highlight the power of index providers, Last month Standard and Poors announced some of the biggest changes in years to the benchmark S&P 500 Index For example changing the category of Visa Mastercard and PayPal to financial companies instead of technology companies makes for an interesting debate However with the rise of indexing and ETF investing these changes can have deceptively large impacts on markets Over time changes to…, What happened to Silicon Valley Bank , One of the biggest market changing events of the first quarter was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank Following a run on the bank by its depositors regulators needed to step in and close the bank The subsequent closing of Signature Bank a couple of days later led to widespread concerns about contagion risk and the health of the regional banking sector While swift actions from the Federal Reserve…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter,   Wall street journal, Hey ChatGPT why isnt my AI Fund up like Nvidia, When a single investment trend — like AI — receives a disproportionate share of media coverage its easy to get caught up in the idea that you need to react quickly as an investor to ride the wave and trade the headlines However it often surprises investors to learn that even if you could accurately pick these trends in advance your investment results may differ from what you would have expected…, Japan had a vibrant economy Then it fell into a slump for 30 years , While the US Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of a series of interest rate hikes Japans central bank just raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years This fascinating Planet Money episode looks at the last three-plus decades and how Japan went from having an economy that was the growth story of the 1980s to having one of the slowest-growing major economies of the last 30 years…, Daniel Kahneman the unlikely economist , Last month Nobel prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman passed away at age 90 Kahneman was a pioneer who helped create the field of behavioral economics He challenged the traditional economic belief that assumes humans will make rational decisions to optimize their financial outcomes Instead Kahneman demonstrated scenarios where people react based on biases and heuristics (or mental shortcuts to…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, BARRONS, Charlie Munger Close up, Charlie Munger best known as the long-time partner of Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway passed away in late November one month shy of his 100th birthday While often much more succinct and pithier than the loquacious Buffett Munger was well known for his wit wisdom and musings about how to live a good and successful life Beyond his success as an investor Munger served in World War II and…, Staying the Course is Harder Than it Sounds, Investing often looks easier with the benefit of hindsight When we look through the rearview mirror all of the twists and turns that we have navigated appear obvious and it feels simple to identify all of the points where one should have bought sold or otherwise adjusted course When we look forward however we do so without the knowledge of the path that will come before us Uncertainty and the…, Ten Surprises of 2023 Year End Review, Over the 10 years of preparing Market Observations and sharing items we find of special note with our clients and peers one of the pieces that has regularly garnered the most interest has been Byron Wiens annual list of ten surprises for the year ahead For more than 30 years this list of “surprising” predictions offered a list of events that an average professional investor may have deemed…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, BLOOMBERG, Wall Street soothsayers are bewildered about whats next, Markets and the economy followed a path in the first half of 2023 that few expected Heading into the year a handful of predictions dominated strategists annual outlooks A global recession was imminent Bonds would trounce stocks as equities re-tested bear-market lows Central banks would soon be able to stop the aggressive rate hikes that made 2022 such a year of market misery As growth stumbled…, Great news from the June CPI report Inflation is truly declining, Junes inflation report offered good news for consumers as 2023s falling trend continued with broad declines across most categories of goods and services However it is essential to be mindful that each inflation report is just a snapshot in time and that the Fed has been burned by inflation before As such the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a cautious approach and an additional interest…, Wall Streets recession warning is flashing some wonder if its wrong, An inverted yield curve — when the rates on short-term bonds are higher than those of long-term bonds — has historically been considered an indicator of a coming recession That scenario often reflects the bond market anticipating a slowdown in the economy In 2022 the yield curve flipped to an inverted state as the Fed stepped up its interest rate hikes At the same time calls for a pending…, Published July 2023, Mesirow has no affiliation with any of the sources referenced in this article   

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter,   Wall street journal, Halfway there, On a headline basis US markets finished the first half of 2024 on a tear with the S&P 500 gaining 15% through June 30th However the gains in the market have been extraordinarily narrow meaning only a handful of companies have driven this return Companies outside of the United States and even smaller companies within the US have delivered much weaker and in some cases even negative returns…, How to invest in this fraught election year, Over the next four months there will be no shortage of articles and punditry regarding who is more likely to be our next president and what that will mean for our country and economy These are fundamental questions for us as citizens and voters and we  should  have an opinion However as long-term investors it is essential to recognize that the harsh truth is that the market is amoral and largely…, Americas startup boom is still going strong Heres what it means for the economy, After COVID shut down much of the US economy in early 2020 economists noted an interesting trend in the data later that year A significant jump in the creation of new companies Economists attributed some of this increase to the combination of people either out of work or at home with more time on their hands and the overall rise in the online retail sector The early expectation was that many of…, Marc Lasry - making bucks in credit and sports, This podcast interview features Marc Lasry a pioneer of distressed debt investing Lasry is the CEO of Avenue Capital a firm he founded in 1995 and he was also previously the owner of the Milwaukee Bucks In this broad-ranging conversation Lasry explores the world of credit investing and discusses how he built his firm He also dives into his experience of buying an NBA franchise that at the time of…

It’s often hard to tell the difference between relevant market information and noise That’s why every quarter our Market Observations newsletter lets you know what articles our advisors are using to form ideas and shape opinions Take a look at what caught our eye this quarter, BYRON WIEN, No time for extrapolation, Over the past several decades Byron Wien the Chairman of Blackstone has hosted a series of luncheons for some of the worlds biggest investors at the end of each summer This summer the group met for their annual summer lunch amid strong performance from large-cap US stocks and favorable economic data raising the possibility of a soft landing Even still the group warned that investors should be…, Serendipity on the streets of New York How one man seized the day and sold his company to Berkshire Hathaway, In Berkshire Hathaways 1995 shareholder letter Warren Buffett poked fun at the acronyms created by management consultants when describing Berkshires policy of ABWA or acquisitions by walking around The encounter that led to this tongue-in-cheek acronym was a chance meeting on the streets of New York between Buffett and Barnett Helzberg Jr the CEO of Helzberg Diamonds This article tells the wild…, Americas food giants confront the Ozempic era, This year much has been written about Ozempic and other weight loss drugs and their potential role in changing Americans dietary and health habits As the drugs’ popularity has grown non-pharmaceutical companies have begun to notice a change in consumer behavior Walmart recently reported that they have seen a material change in consumers food shopping behavior and now packaged food companies are…, Market brief The Wile E Coyote stock market, Markets ended the third quarter on somewhat shaky ground with rates pushing higher and equity markets selling off The movement in stocks was partially driven by investors coming to terms with the potential of higher interest rates for longer and happened as economic data raised the possibility that the Fed would keep rates elevated for longer than had been previously expected The article and its…